The Brewers are for Real: An Optimistic Fan’s Perspective

I didn’t think I would actually get to write this article, but the day has finally come. I thought the Milwaukee Brewers would cool off and sit right around .500 at this very moment. Much to the surprise of everyone (except me, check the MLB preview) the Brewers sit at 15-5 mostly because they knew I wanted to write a Brewers blog on NBSR, and because of their pitching. Now, I’ve watched all of 1 Brewer game this season, thanks Ohio Northern U, but nobody pours over the box score every night quite like this guy. Now, I’m not saying that the Brewers will be the best team in baseball, but until they aren’t, you can refer to this around the water cooler. Here’s why the Brewers have won 75% of their game (as of 4/21), and why they’ll continue to do so:

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching: I’d be lying if I said much else mattered in the hot start in Milwaukee, but it has been huge for the Brewers through 20 games so far. A 2.66 ERA is good for 2^nd in the national league, behind Atlanta (2.32), and 3^rd in the majors, behind Oakland (2.55) as well. Francisco Rodriguez has anchored a solid bullpen with 8 saves in 8 chances thus far, while the rest of the guys follow his lead and make these games winnable for the offense in later innings.

The pitching in general has been some of the best in baseball, and easily the best overall in baseball when taking things into consideration. The staff ranks 3^rd in ERA (2.66), 2^nd in quality starts (15), 1^st in WHIP (1.11), and 4^th in opponents’ batting (.226). The starters have done their job going long into ball games and not giving up many runs, just 38 earned in 20 starts.

The starter’s ERA numbers are as follows:

Gallardo: 1.46

Lohse: 2.67

Garza: 4.50

Peralta: 2.19

Estrada: 2.66

Not bad for one of the worst starting units in 2013, and the change came just in time. Keep that up and the Brewers could be the first team to 90 wins in the majors. After all, pitch well and you don’t have to worry about much else, right?

Middle of the Order (Braun/Ramirez): Until April 8, Braun was hitting just.150 with 4 hits in six games. Then, the light bulb went on in that April 8 game against the Phillies. Here’s your video:

Since then, Braun upped his average to .306 (22/72) with 6 HRs, all in the state of Pennsylvania, but that’s not the point. See the clutch gene below, because Braun has a handful of go-ahead RBI late in games this year. I know what you’re thinking, he must still be on the juice…shut up.

His running mate, Aramis Ramirez, fresh off an injury-plagues 2013 season, looks to be in tip-top form this year, and it’s showing at the plate. He’s hitting an absurd .632 (12-19) with runners in scoring position with 13 RBI. Maybe we should call him AramRISP Ramirez instead. Adding to the clutch gene pool, Ramirez in 7-for-10 with 2-outs and runners in scoring position, driving in 8 runs in those situations. Add that to his .347 average in general, and you’ve got 2011 contract-year Ramirez all over again. After all, his deal is up after the 2014 season.

The Clutch Gene: Apparently the entire team has one, with a handful of come-from-behind, extra-inning, and one-run wins already this season. Remember when the Orioles went 29-9 in one-run games in 2012, well the Brewers are aiming to do a few better this season. They have already posted a 5-1 record in those games this year, thanks to their pitching keeping them in it. They are 2-0 in extra-inning games through 20 played this season, and have 4 close game and come-from-behind victories (tied/trailing in the 7^th inning or later) this year. A prime example of this was their weekend series in Pittsburgh, where they had 2 crazy wins on back-to-back days, beginning with Braun HRs in the 7^th and the 9^th to go ahead 8-6 and get the win on Saturday. Sunday featured a real brawl, with real punches, an 8^th inning Mark Reynolds HR to tie, another Braun 9^th inning HR to tie the game again, and a Khris Davis 14^th inning job to win it. Maybe it’s just Ryan Braun who has the clutch gene, but it seems to be rubbing off on his teammates (insert joke about rubbing paste/steroids).

Alright, enough with the optimism, the 2013 Brewers had a similar 9-game winning streak in April, then went on to a 6-22 record in the month of May. That being said, this 2014 edition is head and shoulders better constructed than last year’s model. Another reason to curb the enthusiasm here is the fact that Carlos Gomez will be out for 10+ games because of his incident against the Pirates. How many games does it take until a team can be considered a contender or an elite team? This 2014 Brewers cast will tell us, and I’m hoping it’s soon.

 

 

@DKnappyBoy

Around the MLB in 30 Days: Day 5, The Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

2013: 74-88, 4^th in NL Central

Something Brewer fans hope to see more of in 2014

Last year was an up and down year for the Brewers after coming into the season with a young pitching staff and many question marks around the diamond. After it all, they finished with 74 wins, which was not terrible considering everything that happened. Injuries were huge, with starters Aramis Ramirez, Mat Gamel, Corey Hart, and Rickie Weeks getting hurt at different points. That being said, there were bright spots in young SS Jean Segura, 2B Scooter Gennett, LF Khris Davis, and C Jonathan Lucroy, as well as various young pitchers throughout the season. Unfortunately, much of what the Brewers did, both good and bad on the field, was overshadowed by the suspension of Ryan Braun for the final 65 games of the season after being listed in the Biogenesis case (still no positive tests, but that’s another issue).

The off-season was shaping up to be a quiet one in Milwaukee as it usually is, until GM Doug Melvin swung in and signed FA pitcher Matt Garza to a 4-year/$50 million deal in late January. Before that, the Brewers sent OF Norichika Aoki to Kansas City for bullpen help in Will Smith. They signed Mark Reynolds and Francisco Rodriquez to minor league contracts, and both will likely make the roster. They also essentially get Ryan Braun back this season after missing the final 65 games of last year. The biggest loss was long-time Brewer and fan-favorite Corey Hart, who signed with the Seattle Mariners and left the Brewers with trouble at first base.

Friends 🙂

This year will be big for guys coming back like Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Braun, as well for young guys trying to earn and keep their starting spots, including Jean Segura, Khris Davis, and Scooter Gennett. The starting rotation should be much better than their 4.38 ERA of last season, but they turned things around after the all-star break and will look to carry that momentum into this year with new addition Matt Garza at the #2 starter spot. Opening day will feature Yovani Gallardo, as it has for the last 3 years, who hopes to have his own turn-around season. Garza, Kyle Lohse, Wily Peralta, and a battle for the 5^th starter will round out the rotation. The offense will also be better with the return of Braun and Ramirez to the lineup, as well as Jean Segura learning what it’s like to play a full season after getting tired in the second half in 2013. First base will be a huge question mark, as it was all of last season, where the Brewers’ 1B ranked as one of the worst groups of all-time, hitting .211/.256/.358. Carlos Gomez and Khris Davis round out the outfield, with a move to RF from Braun to make room for Davis. Gomez is coming off his best year as a pro, winning a gold glove while robbing 5 HRs- the most in recorded history*, and learning/remembering how to hit a baseball. The pitching will be the key, and if they can be half as good as the 2011 Brewers pitchers were, the offense should be able to do enough to compete in a very tough NL Central.

Prediction: I picked them to win the division, but that was fan Dan talking. I do think they can compete for a wild-card spot if they can pitch. I’ll say they finish 2^nd in the division and get one of the wild-card spots (before winning the play-in game & eventually the World Series obviously). Watch Ryan Braun because Brett picked him to win the NL MVP award, but will voters be scared to vote for him? Something to watch for.

*- All 5 of Gomez’s HR-robberies are available here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21813

 

@DKnappyBoy