W.A.R. What is it Good For?

by @bsedio

Foreword: So I’m about 2,000 words into one of my favorite pieces I’ve put together. Over three days I had been working on a nice article for you readers on Major League Baseball’s mid-season MVP and how W.A.R. plays a role. After all, you can’t have fun and baseball statistics in the same thought if sabermetrics/advanced metrics don’t play a role.

On day three I click “save as draft” thinking I should make sure my masterpiece doesn’t get destroyed because of a freak power outage. WELL, it didn’t seem to matter, because working on a post for three days without saving or posting it must have confused the WordPress system, and as it thought, farted, and sneezed, my refreshed page now consisted of the first two sentences I wrote and, conveniently, nothing else.

I cried for about a day and a half and realized I had to restart. I’ll first and foremost apologize for the brevity of this piece, but I don’t have another 3 days to recreate that article that was lost, as we must move on. Instead you get the abridged version. And I’ll go out on a limb and bet that 15 of our 20 readers would prefer this one anyhow. Without further ado, or technical mishaps, “WAR, What is it Good For?”

War, what is it good for? Absolutely Nothin’.

W.A.R. What is it good for? Determining your MVP.

As nuiance-esque as preseason World Series predictions, NBSR is proud to bring you our mid-season MVP award winner. So here’s a run through of our staff’s pre-season predictions and other notables at this point.

@b1ders: Ryan Braun and Mike Trout

@bsedio: Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton

@DKnappyBoy: Buster Posey and Mike Trout

@biodome22: Troy Tulowitzki and Mike Trout

Honorable Mentions: Jose Altuve, Nelson Cruz, Jonathon Lucroy and Jose Abreu

JOSE ALTUVE, 2B, HOUSTON ASTROS

Noted as the only All Star representative for the Houston ball club a couple years ago, the Astros now have shown some good fight in 2014 and are moving in the dynasty direction that the front office believes to be a reality in but a few years time. He leads both leagues in hits and is third in stolen bases (behind two National Leaguers). Last year Altuve stole a career best 35 bases, and at time of writing has 26. Last year he recorded 177 hits (152 games) and currently sits at 98 (71 games and is hitting .331). On-pace to smash both those career bests in 2014, but it won’t be enough. Ichiro Suzuki hit .374, yes .374, when he set the single season hit record with 262 in 2004 (161 games played). Vlad Guerrero with a .337 average and 206 hits won the MVP; mostly because of his 39 homers. Ichiro had 8 in comparison. (Altuve’s 162 game average is 6 homers, so consider 8 actually an idea of heroism from Altuve if accomplished). Guerrero would finish the year with a 5.6 WAR and Suzuki an impressive 9.1, while both played over 140 games in right field. Either way Altuve doesn’t have the dazzling power and his 2.5 WAR won’t be enough for rights to the hardware this year, but he’s worth being mentioned.

Jose’s Quirky Stat to Note: Altuve has batted third or fourth in the lineup this year 14 times and he’s batted leadoff 42 times. His slugging percentage is higher batting leadoff and is also the slot in which he’s hit both home runs.

NELSON CRUZ, OF/DH, BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Let’s turn that page over on Altuve and look at the complete opposite. The MLB leader in homers and RBI, Cruz has 22 homers and 58 RBI through 70 games played.

Known for his power, and that one flyball he misplayed.

He’s hitting exactly his career average of .270 but his OPS and slugging are both over 100 points higher now than his career averages. Interestingly enough, Cruz is on pace to bat in about 130 runs this year which would absolutely shatter his career high of 90 in 2012. His 2.7 WAR is less sexy than his power numbers thus far, but staying healthy will probably be his biggest challenge for the remainder of the year.

Nelson’s Former Homes Stat to Note: Cruz has played for the Rangers and the Brewers before finding himself in Baltimore this year. In games played in Arlington and Milwaukee he is 9 for 23 with 4 homers and is slugging a cool 1.000.

JONATHAN LUCROY, C, MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Probably the least sexy name on the list, but you can’t deny his numbers. 2nd in average in Major League Baseball, 6th in OBP, and 9th in OPS. His 25 doubles

Lucroy with Hank. I hope this picture is on a baseball card somewhere.

in 68 games ties his totals from last year (147 games) in what was his best doubles year. Now in his 5th season, Lucroy is displaying gap-to-gap power with his RBI and home run numbers low enough to keep him under the radar for now. His WAR of 3.9 is rock solid and has to be a pleasant surprise to Brewer Nation…or is it? The past two seasons he has posted a 3.5 and 3.6 WAR. Again, rock solid by my calculations.

Jonathan’s First Pitch Stat to Note: Lucroy must like a challenge because after starting an at bat with a first pitch ball he has an OPS of .890, while a first pitch strike has lead him to an OPS of .970.

JOSE ABREU, 1B, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Strictly power numbers here from the Cuban defect. With 20 homers and 53 RBI he is making a strong case for Rookie of the Year honors.

Dunn’s protege?

He’s in the top ten in baseball in homers, RBI and slugging, all while he’s a step behind the others with only 59 games played thanks to a pit stop on the DL. Adam Dunn 2.0 is hitting .263 with an on base percentage that sits at a mediocre .320. Voters better like power numbers because his 1.6 WAR and his pure average numbers won’t help in his case.

Jose’s Air Ball Stats to Note: 24% of the time Abreu hits a fly ball, it goes over a fence in fair territory. The league average is 7%.

RYAN BRAUN, LF, MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Our second Brewer believe it or not; and @DKnappyBoy isn’t writing this either [this is where you scratch your head]. The Hebrew Hammer,

You can hate the player, not the flow.

as no one refers to him, is quite unheroic this year. Average of .279 and OPS of .822 isn’t anything to laugh at, but it’s not exactly MVP numbers. His 1.2 WAR should be enough to make this the last sentence we mention about him.

Ryan’s Spray Chart Stats to Note: Bruan would be this season’s MVP if he didn’t hit the ball up the middle. Average of .271 and OPS of .783 when going up the gut (107 at bats), and is hitting over .465 and his OPS is over 1.200 when pulling or going oppo (71 at bats).

MIKE TROUT, OF, ANGELS OF LOS ANGELES, ANAHEIM, and CALIFORNIA

The 2012 Rookie of the Year started his career in style, finishing second in MVP voting in 2012 and 2013 (Miguel Cabrera both times). This year his stolen base numbers are way down, and I blame Albert Pujols and the Angels front office…another topic for another day. Averaging a WAR of somewhere in the neighborhood of 9.5 the last two season, his 4.5 this year isn’t far off. His statline is good all over, take your pic. The OPS over 1.000, the slugging over .600, OBP over .400 and average over .300 just sounds like MVP-like numbers. Different to my assumptions, his dWAR is only .3 (2.1 in 2012 and negative last year). It’s hard not to figure though, that having those other big names in the lineup with him might be the biggest thing you can take away from him, next to his defense. In contrast Miguel Cabrera has had an unhealthy Victor Martinez and Prince Fielder in previous years. So if it comes down to those two again, and is as close as it has been, I see Cabrera getting the nod. They valued his power over Trout’s defense before, right?

Mike’s Power Outage Stat to Note: When the Angels win, Trout hits twice as many homers. That 26 career homers in losses, and 52 career dingers in wins.

MIGUEL CABRERA, CI/DH, DETROIT TIGERS

Speaking of Miggy, and his 2.4 WAR and -.1dWAR this year…2nd in RBI, hitting .320 and pounding doubles like it’s his job….

Oops

Yet nobody on the staff picked Cabrera….

Miguel’s Glove Stats to Note: Cabrera is a career .992 fielder at first, .956 at third base and .971 in the outfield.

JOSH DONALDSON, 3B, OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Originally drafted as a catcher by the Cubs, this year Donaldson is a year removed from a fourth place finish in MVP voting and second in baseball with a 4.6 WAR. On pace to sniff 30 homers and 100 RBI this season, in his fourth season of Major League action, but

How his last couple weeks have felt.

his .125 average the last two weeks isn’t helping. Up until a couple weeks ago Donaldson had everyone’s eyebrows way up (6 hits and 2 RBI last week, goose eggs the week before that). He still holds an OPS over .800 but the real noise he’s making is in the field. And with most thanks to advanced metrics (runs saved, range factors, and the likes) we now are valuing his defense more than has been done in the past. His dWAR is 2.1 (tied for first in MLB) which is super close to his 2.6 oWAR. So naturally we can say half of his value is in his glove, which probably won’t impress voters at season’s end as much as it does NBSR staff.

Josh’s Loaded Bases Stats to Note: Donaldson hits best with the bases loaded. He’s hitting .452 over his career with the bags juiced, yet only 1 career grand slam.

GIANCARLO/MIKE STANTON, RF, MIAMI MARLINS of FLORIDA

Stanton is well known for his brute strength. His ability to hit balls off of slides, window facings, and restaurants will carry with him his entire career. At 6’6″ 240 lbs, only 3 of his 20 home runs have been under 400 feet (for comparison, 10 of Nelson Cruz’s 24 have been under 400 feet, and 9 of Edwin Encarnacion’s 23). Stanton’s first year making over half a million dollars (after taxes) might also be the first year he hits over .300. Hitting .303 and slugging .585 on the year are impressive feats for someone only revered to have power…but we’re not even in July yet. His BABIP is one of the highest I’ve seen in a while, a toasty .365. Now remembered what we learned, that a BABIP is always looking to move towards the league average (.290-.303) and is a reflection of one’s batting average. Even if you include his career BABIP of .330, we should still expect to see some significant regression in the second half of the season. But for now, just try and find an NL hitting category in which he’s not near the top. And, oh yeah, his 4.5-third-best-in-the-bigs-WAR.

Giancarlo’s Early Inning Numbers to Note: Stanton’s OPS is over 1.000 and ten of his home runs have come in innings 1-3. From the 4th inning on, his OPS is south of .890 and has only 9 homers.

BUSTER POSEY, C, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Posey is in the top ten in one hitting category: sacrifice flies (6, four are tied with 7). His .280 average is nice but not great, his OPS of .761 helps that out a bit, but maybe not enough. 9 homers, 36 RBI and a measly 1.6 WAR tell the same mediocre story of what should be, a real star. His lowest WAR to date was his brutal knee injury year that was cut short and stranded him at 1.4. Next lowest was 3.9 and won him Rookie of the Year honors. So what do we do when shown abnormal numbers? Check the BABIP. Buster’s .286 BABIP tells us we should see a rise in production, but maybe not one of epic proportions; after all, his 2012 MVP campaign had him with a BABIP of .368 (.336 avg, .957 OPS).

Buster’s Unfriendly Confines Stats to Note: Posey is clearly not an AT&T Park fan. In 978 AB’s on the road and 900 at home in his career, his batting average is 42 points lower and his OPS is 125 points lower at home. On top of that he has 43 homers on the road and only 27 at AT&T Park.

TROY TULOWITZKI, SS, COLORADO ROCKIES

Last but not least, we present, the candidate who has taken advantage of where he plays more than anyone else! The highest batting average (.355), on base percentage (.445), slugging percentage (.637), OPS (1.082), and WAR (5.2) in all of baseball. Pepper in 18 homers, 45 RBI, an Offensive Win Percentage higher than Babe Ruth’s record .857 (let’s not under sell it, he’s at .870) and he’ll be a Home Run Derby captain. Troy Tulowitzki is my mid-season MVP. His numbers are across the board better than anyones.

Tulo’s response when asked if he’d consider playing for a team that didn’t play home games in air thinner than a postcard…

His dWAR is an unsexy 1.3, but I’m the only one who considers dWAR a sexy stat. Other than his .364 BABIP, the only thing holding him back from a 2014 MVP trophy at season’s end is that Rocky Mountain Bias. Yeah, you’ve heard of it. It’s where guys hit .200 points higher inside Coors Field than outside of it. Absurd you say? Well I did round down, but Tulo is hitting .460 at Coors and .252 when not a mile above sea level. That’s preposterous. Tulowitzki is my mid-season MVP, but what if he keeps up at the pace he’s at? I know we ask this question all the time; remember Chris Davis last year? “Dude, he’s on pace to hit 94 homers!” Right. So let’s just all keep our pants on, but play that hypothetical game: Does Tulo get MVP votes at season’s end if he hits .350, but by doing so hits .200 points higher in Denver? Nobody knows the answer. But if he does get the nod, would that encourage hitters to explore Colorado as their next team? Don’t you think Robbie Cano would have been interested in National League pitching, in the thinest air possible, being the most friendly environment to hit in if voters didn’t show a bias against it? And if Tulo wouldn’t get the nod, does that mean you can’t win an MVP in Denver? Would all Rockies hitters be scoffed at now and forever?

Troy’s Stat to Note: Okay, he’s hitting .460 at home. Could you hit .460 on the moon?

Around the MLB in 30 Days: Day 18, the Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels

2013: 78-84, 3^rd in AL West

Last season: Hitting = good, pitching = bad. That was the story all year for the other Los Angeles team. The Angels finished in the top 7 in the MLB in runs scored, batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage, but were still outscored 737-733 over the course of the year. They can blame their pitching staff for that one, coming in with a 4.23 ERA on the year, 24^th in the majors. They missed the playoffs for the 4^th straight season after two off-seasons of huge spending. Albert “I’m no machine, I’m just Albert” Pujols played just over half of the season, while Jered Weaver missed time as well. CJ Wilson looked more like Texas CJ Wilson in 2013 than the first-year Angels Wilson, going 17-7 with a 3.39 ERA in 33 starts, throwing over 200 innings for the 4^th straight year. Mike Trout was a bright spot, hitting even better than he did his rookie season to the tune of .323/.432/.557, while playing in 157 games. With their injuries and inconsistent pitching, they were able to make some deals and discover young prospects who produced from their system later in the year. Those same guys will look to make a big impact in 2014, and the guys who have been there look to improve on their play as well as have bounce back seasons.

The off-season brought a late-November trade for David Freese from the Cardinals, sending OF Peter Bourjos and OF prospect Randal Grichuk (drafter one spot ahead of Mike Trout) to STL for Freese and P Fernando Salas. Raul Ibanez agreed to a one-year deal in December to essentially be the DH after Mark Trumbo was traded to the D-Backs for Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago in a three-team deal. The Angels brought in bullpen help, which they badly needed, with the signing of RHP Joe Smith to a 3-year deal, although many said they overpaid in the nearly $16 million they’ll pay to him over the life of that contract.

This season the rotation looks to rebound from an awful season last year, looking to build on its 24^th place ERA in the majors. I would expect the hitting to be fairly similar to what they produced last season, almost in the top 5 of all major offensive categories. The problem was and will continue to be pitching, as the depth of their staff is not Oakland A’s-like. Their starting 5 looks to be Weaver, Wilson, Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, and Hector Santiago. Beyond the first two who have been solid contributors, the other three have been and could be inconsistent. The outfield will be Trout, Josh Hamilton, and Kole Calhoun, being joined by Pujols, Howie Kendrick, Freese, and Erick Aybar around the horn, with Chris Iannetta behind the plate. Overall, they should be not bad on defense, and pretty good at the plate, but the pitching and depth will be the issue for these 2014 LA Angels.

Predictions: Well the Angels hit their way to 78 wins last year, if the pitching picks up even a little bit, they should be in the thick of the wild card race. I like them to finish 2^nd in the division and play in the wild card game. Mike Trout will have his usual MVP-caliber season and could finally take home the award, but we’ll see what a certain Tiger has to say about that.

 

@DKnappyBoy