Around the MLB in 30 Days: Day 27, The Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves, 96-66 First in NL East (Lost to LAD in NLDS)

The Braves’ spring training camp is at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. They hope of some of Disney’s magic will rub off in their drive to the World Series.

LAST SEASON: After big splash moves and obtaining an outfield with guys named Upton and Heyward, the Braves were held to some high expectation. Contrarily, the outfield was not the reason the Braves won the division. BJ Upton dropped the ball the most (figuratively), finishing the year with a .184 average and nine homers in over 120 games played. Brother Justin wasn’t spectacular either, but clearly a better year than BJ with 26 homers and an average north of .250. Heyward only participated in 104 games and managed a meager .254 average with 16 homers. The lineup was truly carried by Freddie Freeman (23/109/.319) who anchored first base all year. Guys you know like Dan Uggla and Brian McCann stayed true to form, adding power without average, yet still a threat in every at bat to do some kind of damage.

Andrelton Simmons (born in Curacao) makes a marvelous grab in the 2013 WBC in front of centerfielder Roger Bernadina. NBSR speculates Bernadina was positioned in the center field stands or was napping on the warning track as the ball was hit..

Guys you didn’t know like Andrelton Simmons and Chris Johnson both played over 140 games on the left side of the infield, with Simmons adding excellent defense, a little power (17 homers) and a fair average (.692 OPS) to the mix. Chris Johnson didn’t have a flashy year (in my opinion), but was highest on the team in average (.321) and second highest in OBP (.358). Evan Gattis and Jordan Schaeffer proved their worth as much needed backups that saw ample playing time (199 games combined). First in home runs in the NL and strikeouts as well lead to middle-of-the-road team numbers as far as OBP and OPS was concerned. The Braves stayed true to National League tradition, and despite leading the league in long balls, relied on their pitching staff to pave the way. Best in the league in runs allowed (and naturally earned runs and ERA) and second in allowing free passes better explains why the lineup that was consistently shaky was able to pull out 96 wins.

3B Chris Johnson and his forearms

Mike Minor, Kris Medlan, and Julio Teheran headed up the rotation while they’re all under the age of 27. Tim Hudson, Freddy Garcia, Paul Maholm and spot starter Alex Wood provided both depth and ample support, with each of them either barely above or below the .500 W-L mark. Minor threw the only complete game for the staff and with setup man Jordan Walden and closer Craig Kimbrel you then understand why. As Kimbrel continues to define the term “lights out” the rest of the bullpen consisted of 2 middle relievers with under 2 ERAs and a combined 28-13 record, i.e. they don’t blow the leads their starters give them.

The Braves’ season ended in the NLDS to the hands of the Dodgers

OFF SEASON: After losing to the Dodgers in the NLDS the Braves got to work on changing things up. A couple relievers, starters Hudson and Maholm, backup infielder Paul Janish and Brian McCann all said goodbye to Atlanta this offseason. Much fewer additions came into place: catcher Ryan Doumit, pitchers Gavin Floyd, Luis Vasquez and Zach Stewart all signed new contracts. And let’s not forget the latest of the signings, starter Ervin Santana, who looks to be just what the doctor ordered to help a young staff mature and fill the holes Hudson and Maholm will leave.

New Starter Ervin Santana

This Season: The lineup should look similar except for Evan Gattis becoming the every day catcher with McCann now donning the pinstripes. Gattis looks like a very capable replacement, putting up almost identical numbers as McCann while playing in three more games (McCann will be 30 years old this season, Gattis 27). Between Jose Constanza (OF) and Tyler Pastornicky (IF) the Braves continue to show off their young talent that they have waiting to get some innings and show what they can do.

Despite all the moves, the rotation doesn’t look terribly different either. Medlen hurt his elbow in spring ball and within the last ten days of writing this, underwent his second Tommy John surgery. Luckily the Braves have a good stockpile of young arms. Look for Alex Wood and David Hale to pick up some big innings this year. Starter Ervin Santana won’t be ready for opening day. As a very late signing, he doesn’t have his pitch count up to where the Braves would like it. At the same time, don’t expect him to be far away from getting there (target is at, or less than two weeks).  Aaron Harang gets to benefit from this as he was named an opening day roster member. Kimbrel and Walden will continue to provide the best ability to close games in baseball, so no worries in the bullpen.

Closer Craig Kimbrell

Predictions:  Up and down the Braves have what ever other team in Major League Baseball wants; talent and youth. The lineup had the ability to cold at times last year just as quickly as they got hot. The pitching staff as a whole was strong but losing a couple role player veterans and Kris Medlen for the year could prove unfortunate. Honestly, if the Braves would have signed Robinson Cano and not had Medlen get hurt, I’d be picking them as the NL representative in the World Series. But while you’d believe that outfield has to do better this year, the only guy you can seemingly rely on for consistency in the lineup is Freddie Freeman. Medlen is staff-ace quality and would be detrimental to any team that lost him.  Still I like the Braves to repeat as division champs and give the Dodgers a run for their money in the NLCS. I think the pitching will suffer a bit, but the lineup should get better, fairing well for the choppers of the tomahawk in the end.

@bsedio

Around the MLB in 30 Days: Day 16, The Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals

Will 2014 be the year the Royals emerge from the shadows of the AL Central and into the postseason for the first time since 1985?

86-76 Third in AL Central in 2013

Last Season:

A real tough luck year for the Royals who, indeed, were contenders (see pic below). Finishing the year at 7 back of the division top and 5.5 back of a wild card spot, it was the best season the Royals had seen in recent history. Starters James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana looked to be anchors of the pitching staff despite their combined 37 wins. Contributions, but the real stars of the staff were Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar and Greg Holland. Chen was plugged in and at 36 posted a 9-4 record with a 3.27 ERA all while throwing the ball with his left hand. Hochevar threw 70 innings of relief with a 1.92 ERA and two saves while Holland topped that with his 1.21 ERA and 47 saves in 67 innings of work. The lineup was tops in stolen bags, worst in four baggers, and right in the middle in OPS. Only one player batted over .300 (Eric Hosmer) and 5 others were over .285 (Butler, Perez, Lough, Bonafacio and Tejada). The problem was they had as many guys posting detrimental averages as they did good one. The most notably Jeff Francoeur who hit .208 in 59 games in a season where his game seemed to fall off the map.

I took this photo in January of 2013, when I was in the area and stopped at Kaufman to check it out. My favorite picture of that trip.

The Offseason:

Departures include Ervin Santana (Atlanta Braves in free agency) and Luke Hochevar (Tommy John surgery). Speaking of Tommy John, part of the Royals allowing Santana to not resign probably hinged on the fact they will be getting starter Danny Duffy back from said surgery this year. Pickups included Omar Infante and Norichika Aoki who should provide top of the order strength.

Outlook:

The pitching staff was great in 2013; one of the best closers spotted 47 saves and the staff as a whole lead the league in ERA. The loss of Santana shouldn’t prove as bad as some believe but at the same time, they lack upside. Starters Shields, Guthrie, Chen, Duffy, and Vargas should provide numerous adequate starts but it’s not like any of them are primed for a breakout year. The upside resides in prospects Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer, who are close to ready for MLB action. The plus here is they don’t have a gaping hole in the rotation that would possibly rush one of them up and potentially cause problems. Consider these prospects excellent backup plans in case somebody gets hurt or forgets how to throw. The additions of Infante and Aoki should prove as much needed due to the lack of production from the highly capable Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain. 11th in runs scored last year, and best in not allowing runs got them to an 86 win season. Imagine what could happen if the pitching staff stays in the top five in the league and the offense can jump some spots to put them at middle of the pack or slightly better.

Prediction:

One of the toughest predictions in the AL, as the second wild card spot continues to muddy the waters between being a third place finisher in your division or a post season team. Oddly enough (or maybe not so much) I hinge the Royals ability to get to the postseason on Mike Moustakas and Nick Swisher. Moustakas absolutely needs to provide some power to a lineup that desperately needs some outside of Billy Butler. If he can play “the way he’s supposed to” the Royals should be well on their way. Swisher I see as the make or break factor for the Indians, as he had a dismal 2013. The point there is Swisher admitted he felt a lot of pressure to perform in 2013 and had trouble settling in at times. The team made the playoffs with him hitting .246 on the year, so if he can get back to .270-.290 like he did in 2010-12 the Tribe might be further strengthened by something they already have, not helping the Royals chances. Simply the Royals come in third in the division and miss the playoffs if everything plays out similar to how it did last year. If Moustakas and a couple others bolster the lineup, the Royals jump the Indians for the number two spot and are in October baseball. Yeah it does sound a little funny.

@bsedio