I didn’t think I would actually get to write this article, but the day has finally come. I thought the Milwaukee Brewers would cool off and sit right around .500 at this very moment. Much to the surprise of everyone (except me, check the MLB preview) the Brewers sit at 15-5 mostly because they knew I wanted to write a Brewers blog on NBSR, and because of their pitching. Now, I’ve watched all of 1 Brewer game this season, thanks Ohio Northern U, but nobody pours over the box score every night quite like this guy. Now, I’m not saying that the Brewers will be the best team in baseball, but until they aren’t, you can refer to this around the water cooler. Here’s why the Brewers have won 75% of their game (as of 4/21), and why they’ll continue to do so:
Pitching, pitching, and more pitching: I’d be lying if I said much else mattered in the hot start in Milwaukee, but it has been huge for the Brewers through 20 games so far. A 2.66 ERA is good for 2nd in the national league, behind Atlanta (2.32), and 3rd in the majors, behind Oakland (2.55) as well. Francisco Rodriguez has anchored a solid bullpen with 8 saves in 8 chances thus far, while the rest of the guys follow his lead and make these games winnable for the offense in later innings.
The pitching in general has been some of the best in baseball, and easily the best overall in baseball when taking things into consideration. The staff ranks 3rd in ERA (2.66), 2nd in quality starts (15), 1st in WHIP (1.11), and 4th in opponents’ batting (.226). The starters have done their job going long into ball games and not giving up many runs, just 38 earned in 20 starts.
The starter’s ERA numbers are as follows:
Gallardo: 1.46
Lohse: 2.67
Garza: 4.50
Peralta: 2.19
Estrada: 2.66
Not bad for one of the worst starting units in 2013, and the change came just in time. Keep that up and the Brewers could be the first team to 90 wins in the majors. After all, pitch well and you don’t have to worry about much else, right?
Middle of the Order (Braun/Ramirez): Until April 8, Braun was hitting just.150 with 4 hits in six games. Then, the light bulb went on in that April 8 game against the Phillies. Here’s your video:
Since then, Braun upped his average to .306 (22/72) with 6 HRs, all in the state of Pennsylvania, but that’s not the point. See the clutch gene below, because Braun has a handful of go-ahead RBI late in games this year. I know what you’re thinking, he must still be on the juice…shut up.
His running mate, Aramis Ramirez, fresh off an injury-plagues 2013 season, looks to be in tip-top form this year, and it’s showing at the plate. He’s hitting an absurd .632 (12-19) with runners in scoring position with 13 RBI. Maybe we should call him AramRISP Ramirez instead. Adding to the clutch gene pool, Ramirez in 7-for-10 with 2-outs and runners in scoring position, driving in 8 runs in those situations. Add that to his .347 average in general, and you’ve got 2011 contract-year Ramirez all over again. After all, his deal is up after the 2014 season.
The Clutch Gene: Apparently the entire team has one, with a handful of come-from-behind, extra-inning, and one-run wins already this season. Remember when the Orioles went 29-9 in one-run games in 2012, well the Brewers are aiming to do a few better this season. They have already posted a 5-1 record in those games this year, thanks to their pitching keeping them in it. They are 2-0 in extra-inning games through 20 played this season, and have 4 close game and come-from-behind victories (tied/trailing in the 7th inning or later) this year. A prime example of this was their weekend series in Pittsburgh, where they had 2 crazy wins on back-to-back days, beginning with Braun HRs in the 7th and the 9th to go ahead 8-6 and get the win on Saturday. Sunday featured a real brawl, with real punches, an 8th inning Mark Reynolds HR to tie, another Braun 9th inning HR to tie the game again, and a Khris Davis 14th inning job to win it. Maybe it’s just Ryan Braun who has the clutch gene, but it seems to be rubbing off on his teammates (insert joke about rubbing paste/steroids).
Alright, enough with the optimism, the 2013 Brewers had a similar 9-game winning streak in April, then went on to a 6-22 record in the month of May. That being said, this 2014 edition is head and shoulders better constructed than last year’s model. Another reason to curb the enthusiasm here is the fact that Carlos Gomez will be out for 10+ games because of his incident against the Pirates. How many games does it take until a team can be considered a contender or an elite team? This 2014 Brewers cast will tell us, and I’m hoping it’s soon.
Apparently wordpress won’t allow me to preset this video to start for you at a specific time, so you’ll have to zoom ahead to the 7:00 minute mark to get to the goods.
Enjoy this catch from the Miami vs. Kent State game last Saturday. †
“This game is now about younger coaches who are technologically skilled, innovative, and bring fresh new ideas. That’s what we feel we are getting with Erik Spoelstra. He’s a man that was born to coach,” said Pat Riley in 2008. From one man that was born to coach to maybe the greatest basketball coaching mind of all time, the similarities are there to see. Erik Spoelstra recently picked up his 300th win (314 career wins at time of this post) so the question arises…How good of a coach is Erik Spoelstra? We’re here to explore that for you and show you how the two compare. This discussion now also further legitamizes as Spoelstra is on the verge of his 3rd straight NBA championship, a feat only Jackson has done, in recent memory.
BACKGROUND
Off the court, the two couldn’t be more different. Phil Jackson was born in Deer Lodge, Montana in 1945; Spoelstra in Evansville, Illinois in 1970 to a Filipino-American family. Spoelstra was born in Illinois, moved to Buffalo at a young age, and eventually spent most of his young life in Portland, Oregon, while Jackson spent his first 22 years in Montana and North Dakota. Spoelstra lived and breathed basketball, while Jackson grew up in a household that encouraged him to become a minister.
PLAYING CAREER
Both stayed close to home to play college basketball, with Jackson receiving a scholarship to North Dakota, and Spoelstra at Portland University. Jackson was a multi-sport athlete who received a lot of interest from professional baseball scouts, before accepting his basketball scholarship to North Dakota, where they lost to Walt Frazier’s Southern Illinois team two years in a row in the NCAA Division II Final Four. Spoelstra started at point guard all four years at Portland, where he was named the West Coast Conference freshman of the year in 1989 before going onto see his name at the top of many statistical categories for the Pilots. Spoelstra’s playing career came to an end after a short professional playing career in Germany with Tus Herten, while Jackson’s continued for 15 more years as a part of the New York Knicks and New Jersey Nets. Jackson was named to the NBA all-rookie team in 1968, and won two championships with the Knicks in 1970 and 1973. Jackson’s career stats include 6.7 PPG, 4.3 APG, and just over one rebound per game.
EARLY COACHING
Both men worked internationally before coming back to the NBA and into assistant coaching positions. Jackson retired from playing after the 1980 season and first coached the Albany Patroons of the CBA, guiding them to their first CBA championship in 1984. Jackson went on to accept head coaching positions in Puerto Rico’s national superior basketball league, the BSN, where he coached the Piratas de Quebradillas and the Gallitos de Isabela. Jackson was regularly on the lookout for an NBA opening and eventually got his start with the Chicago Bulls in 1987 under head coach Doug Collins. Phil Jackson came to the Bulls first as an assistant coach and was named head coach just two seasons later in 1989.
Spoelstra started his professional coaching career in 1993 in Germany as a player and assistant coach with Tus Herten. His first head-coaching job came with their youth program, essentially coaching Tus Herten’s U-18 or AAU team. After the conclusion of the 1995 German season, the Miami Heat offered him a position on their staff, while Tus Herten also offered him a 2-year contract to stay. Spoelstra took the Heat’s offer, and as they say, the rest is history. His first order of business was a position as video coordinator for the Heat, where a shake up with the coaching staff did not guarantee him a job, as Pat Riley would have been able to bring in his own video person, but decided to go with Spoelstra. He was promoted to video coordinator/assistant coach in 1998, then to assistant coach/advanced scout in 1999, and later became the Heat’s director of scouting in 2001, along with his assistant coaching duties. Spoelstra is credited with the improvement of Dwyane Wade’s jump shot, and was hand-selected by Pat Riley to replace him after his retirement at the conclusion of the 2007-08 NBA season. Spoelstra was named the head coach in April of 2008, becoming the first Asian-American coach in the four major sports in the United States.
SHORT SUCCESS
Less than 5 years into each man’s head coaching career, they found themselves with superstar players and a championship or two. In both cases, the men rocketed to NBA Finals appearances, Jackson winning his in the second year (1991-92), Spoelstra in his fourth (2011-12). There are multiple reason’s for their success, between their players and the teams they inherited or brought together, their coaching philosophies and offensive strategies, and a little luck as well. Phil Jackson and his success is fairly unprecedented with his six NBA titles in a 7-year span, while Spoelstra looks for his third-straight, a year after becoming the 8th head coach to lead his team to two in a row, and the first since…Phil Jackson (2008-2010 Lakers).
Here’s the strange fact, both went 16-7 in the playoffs in their two-peat years, Jackson with the Lakers, and Spoelstra most recently with the Heat. Each man also lost in the NBA Finals the year before reeling off their two consecutive championships, going 14-7 in the playoffs up to their elimination. It’s been a career of streaks for both coaches, which is the success in a short period of time, but on multiple occasions. Jackson won 3, 3, 3, & 2 championships in a row on different occasions, while at one point winning 6 titles in a row as a coach; three from 1995-98 with the Bulls and late MJ, and three from 1999-2002 with the Lakers after taking a year off in-between, vowing he would never coach again, but that’s not the point. Spoelstra hopes to equal the success of Jackson and is in the right place to do so.
MANAGING SUPERSTARS
Whether it’s LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O’Neal, Dwyane Wade, or Kobe Bryant, each man has had his hands full with celebrity athletes, many times in the prime of their career and in that best-in-the-NBA conversation. For Jackson it was a guy named Michael Jordan in Chicago, then some players names O’Neal and Bryant in Los Angeles, eventually making sure all three got what they needed and played to their full potential. It has been said that Jackson was the Zen master and a calming influence on all players, including the big names. He was never too high or too low and was always in the right state of mind for basketball, and that’s what his players enjoyed. Spoelstra is a little different in managing his superstars, giving them free reign throughout the basketball operation of the team. Spoelstra’s genius comes in the form of getting the two stars to work together, something that Phil never really mastered between Kobe and Shaq. When LeBron joined the Miami Heat after the 2010 season it was still Dwyane Wade’s team, since Wade had been drafted there 7 years earlier and played his entire career with the team. Spoelstra got the two to agree that one of them had to drive the car and one had to be in the passenger seat. Spoelstra had thought it should be Wade and had various meeting after the 2010-11 season with the stars, basically telling them what he needed from them to make the team work. He designed his offense around the best player in the game, LeBron James and that was that, because with the success they have had, the problems seem to go away. Funny how that works, isn’t it?
THE OFFENSES
One has the triangle, one has his own ‘pace and space’ offense, but which is better and how did they come to rely so heavily on something that was just a phase according to some? Phil’s offense was not his own, but designed in the 40’s and later perfected by the Zen master with the Chicago Bulls, while Spoelstra designed his around a do-it-all player with the ability to drive and kick out to shooters placed strategically around the perimeter, with athletes across the floor. The triangle is essentially Miami’s ‘space,’ just without the pace, basing the offense on the same principle once the ball gets into the teeth of the defense down low. The triangle offense was once never seen in the NBA, then the most popular offense in the game, much like what Spoelstra designed and has been tweaked by many teams across the league following the Heat’s Finals loss to the Mavs in 2011.
Between the years of 1991-2011, the triangle offense was responsible for 11 of the 20 NBA titles, all won by Phil Jackson coached teams in Chicago and LA. The triangle offense is exactly what it says, using three offensive players to form a triangle with their ball movement and spacing. The triangle offense in Chicago featured Hall of Famers Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen running the offense, while the second Chicago three-peat featured Dennis Rodman in the post as well. So, technically, each coach used the offense that allowed their best players to be their best players. It sounds dumb, but not a lot of teams can say this. As the offense flows, the triangle offense flows with it, and if one side of the triangle cannot be completed or is shut down by the defense, the ball can easily be swung to the weak-side and started all over again. The triangle is perhaps the only offensive set any casual NBA fan can identify by name, despite the fact that no one outside of Phil Jackson’s coaching sphere can describe how it works with any clarity. The big deal with the triangle is that the ball goes into the big man in the post, and he can choose to go to work on offense, or kick out to a variety of different players. One option he could kick out to a small forward who can take a three or use his athleticism to get inside, while the other option is to kick to a guard to take a three or set up the triangle again, either on the same or the weak side. Here’s a few diagrams of the offensive set-up and where players start the offense at:
Simple, right?
Spoelstra’s offense is based on one player using his specific skill set to define how the offense plays. You’ll notice that the Heat rarely ever use this space and pace offense if LeBron is not on the floor, and often go to a pick-an-roll set when he’s on the bench. LeBron has said that the offense has grown and evolved over the last three years, saying, “We’re at a record pace, assists are high, efficiency is high, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, we’re doing it all.” The thing with Erik Spoelstra’s offense is that every player on the floor, or at least 4 of the 5 when LeBron is on the court, have the ability to take and make a high volume of three-point shots. After all, threes are worth more than twos. The key to the offense is the small-ball that the Miami Heat play. By removing the traditional big man, the interior clears up, and the defense is stretched to its limit trying to defend and close out on as well as help on every player on the floor, if things are running smoothly. Just when you think you have every player accounted for and set up on defense, the Heat can hit you with the pace aspect, running this offense with deadly precision at a quick pace; players cutting and getting to their spots on the floor so when LeBron decides to use his cutting ability, the plays are there to be made for him, all up-tempo. Be sure to credit Erik Spoelstra, the architect who realized where the team’s strengths lie and created a pace-and-space system that maximized everyone’s abilities. Here is a video that killed the Spurs in the finals, with the space and pace of the Miami offense:
I won’t say that Spoelstra is the second coming of Phil Jackson, but he isn’t off to a bad start. As the numbers sit right now, there obviously isn’t a real argument, as Phil is undoubtedly better with more titles, over 1,000 wins, and a higher win percentage through four times as many games. But it’s the projections of what Spoelstra can do that really give this idea value. Where will Spoelstra’s career head? Each man had the superstar players, but is he a winner because of Wade and James? Stay tuned.
I know what you’re thinking, why wouldn’t you want the 1-seed in the NBA playoffs, or why would you rather not have home court advantage in the finals? Well, for the Miami Heat, it may be a better scenario for the first few rounds of the 2014 edition of the NBA playoffs.
If you look at the matchups around the Eastern Conference playoff bracket you’ll see bad teams at the bottom, two good teams at the top, and a few ‘giant-killers’ in between. The two teams I’m talking about are none other than the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets, who have looked both tremendous and terrible at different times this season. The problem for the Heat is that the tremendous times for these teams have come against the two-time defending champions.
When the Heat do eventually and inevitably get that 2-seed in the east, the matchup may favor them simply because of the fact that they have to play neither of these teams mentioned above. Heck, even the locked-in 8-seed Atlanta Hawks have given the Heat trouble in the last week, beating them by 13 on Saturday night. Let’s start with those Atlanta Hawks, and their 2-2 record against the Heat this season. Even without Al Horford, who has been out since tearing his ACL in December, the Hawks have been incredibly effective against the Heat (2-2), and Pacers (2-2). The confidence to beat these teams is where it starts, and with the regular season wins, they have just that. So the Pacers may have no walk-in-the-park first round series against the Hawks starting Saturday night, while the Heat will get the Bobcats, who they have beat all 4 times this year. We’ll see which series NBA TV wants to take (hint: It’s the Bobcats). Heat-1, Pacers-0. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s get to the mean & potatoes of these Eastern Conference playoffs.
The 4/5 matchup in the first round might as well be the matchup of two heavyweight fighters that will go 7 games almost no doubt. That’s the one you’ll want to make time for this weekend and into next week. The season series between the two, very different, teams sits at a 2-1 Chicago advantage, and none of the games have been close. 17, 16, & 16 point wins for the teams doesn’t bode well for either defensive unit, but each plays with a kind of reckless abandon that comes up clutch against the top teams, almost a sense of fearlessness in both teams. Regardless of who wins, the Heat won’t have to play them in the second round, that honor will belong to none other than the Indiana Pacers. The Heat have a dismal record of 0-4 against the Nets, while the Pacers sit at 4-0 against that same Brooklyn team. So that may not be a huge challenge for them, but they’re doing the Heat a favor by taking care of business there. Chicago is another story, where the Heat have a 2-2 record against the Bulls, and the Pacers match that 2-2 record against them. The Bulls and Nets are two different teams, but the same fearlessness to take on the big boys. Both are good on defense, allowing less than 100 PPG, with the Bulls tops in the NBA allowing 91.8 PPG to opponents. The Bulls like to rebound and pass, while the Nets do not. The Bulls rank 10th in the NBA in both rebound per and assists per game, while the Nets ranks 29th (in front of Miami) and 25th respectively in those same categories. Miami, on the other hand, will have to play a Toronto team who they are 4-0 against or a Washington team they are essentially 2-1 against, with one game where the Heat sat all their starters. So if you’re playing along at home, the Pacers will play the winner of Brooklyn/Chicago, while Miami will take on the Toronto/Washington winner. Heat-2, Pacers-0.
After this is where it may really get interesting, should the Heat and Pacers both get to this point. You know what I’m talking about, the Eastern Conference Finals that we’ve been waiting for since Derrick Rose got hurt. The Pacers will have the home court, but does that matter at this point? Each team won at least one game on the road last season when the two met in the same spot, and it will be a classic 7-gamer, as it should be. Welcome to the best ‘rivalry’ in the NBA, people. Just sit back and watch now as the Heat (cross your fingers) take care of business; but no, I’m not biased.
………And we haven’t even mentioned the NBA Finals………
If you’ve been following along, which we’re sure you have, then you’ve gotten a good dose of each MLB team and a preview of what the 2014 season should entail for them. Needless to say, the NBSR staff has become well informed over the 30 day trek. So why not throw out some predictions for award winners and division winners….everybody else is doing it right?
ALW
ALC
ALE
ALWC
AL
WC
NLW
NLC
NLE
NL
WC
NL
WC
Cham-ps
AL/NL
CY
MVP
Brett
Tex
Det
Bal
TB
Oak
LA
St.L
Nats
Atl
Arz
Tigers
Darvis,
Kersh
Trout, Braun
Bryce
Oak
Det
Nyy
Sea
Cle
LAD
StL
Atl
Ari
Was
Braves
Felix, Fernandez
Donaldson,
Stanton
Dan
OAK
DET
TB
LA
NY
LAD
MIL
ATL
STL
SF
LAD
Price,
Kershaw
Trout,
Posey
Jordan
Oak
Cle
Bos
Det
TB
LAD
Cin
Wash
Pitt
Arz
LAD
YU
Fernandez
Trout
Tulowitzki
OK so let’s explain ourselves eh?
DAN:
National League- Let me get the Dodgers, Brewers, & Braves for division champs. The Dodgers may very well be the best team in baseball, but they have to be careful and get some others to step up without Kershaw, for however long that is. Everyone and their grandma is picking the Dodgers in the West, and for good reason. I’m taking the Brewers because I’m a homer and their pitching looks to be solid enough to compete, that’s why they get the benefit of the doubt in the central, which won’t be as good as it was as a whole last season. The Braves could be hurting without some of their pitching at the moment, but that doesn’t take the talent away from their lineup. In the wild card game, I had to get the Cardinals into the playoffs somehow, because that’s just what they do. They’ll take care of the Giants, who will get help from MVP Buster Posey to get that 2nd wild card spot; been there, done that, right? I’ll take the sexy pick & favorites in Vegas to win the NL in the Dodgers, who will take out the Cards in the NLCS….Unless the Brewers have something to say about it (they probably won’t, that was more of a optimistic fan pick).
American League– There seemed to be a lot more parity in our picks in the AL, agreeing on zero division winners, mostly because that yahoo took the Indians in the AL Central. I’ll take the A’s, Tigers, and Rays in the divisions. The A’s because of their pitching and ability to win close games. The Tigers because they’re really good, and the Rays because of their pitching, all while playing in the toughest division. The Rays know (I think) that they are going to need David Price for a full season if they want to compete, even with the shiny new deal they gave Chris Archer, so I’ll say Price wins the Cy Young…as a member of the Rays. I actually like the Rays to go all the way in the AL because they play such great defense and pitch so well. Eventually they’ll have to score some runs, but until then they’ve got a lot going for them. Give me the Angels, after their FA signing finally show up to play, in the wild card. They’ll ultimately end up getting beat by the Yankees in the WC game, while the Yankees fight off the age bug to compete all year. It’s about time Trout wins the MVP, because if they can’t give it to LeBron 3 years in a row, then Miggy can’t have it 3 years in a row either.
ALCS-Rays over A’s……NLCS-Dodgers over Cardinals……WS-Dodgers over Rays
Bryce:
I saw things a lot clearer in the NL than the AL. The Reds lost a lot and will add very little…might as well sprinkle some early season injuries to the rotation on top. The Pirates got to the playoffs on over-performance, plain and simple. This leaves the timeless wonder that are the St Louis Cardinals to keep the top of the division. With that said Milwaukee and Chicago won’t be contenders this year leaving my wild cards to an East and West team. The Nationals are one of the most complete teams in baseball, but I think the Braves are just a touch better. I see both with 93+ win seasons. The Dodgers are the no brainer pick (note our unanimous agreement) and I believe the D-Backs will be able to ward off, what could be, a very closely contested NL West. The Giants and Rockies should lurk all season long, with the Padres as my dark horse, simply because they will be good soon. This idea has a wide time frame though with the winning ways either starting this July or March 2017. My best record goes to the Braves who will beat the Cardinals in the NLCS. A series that will go seven games because these two will be so closely contested. The Braves lost Medlen for the year but picked up Ervin Santana, and I’m flat out convinced that outfield will just be better as a whole. The Cardinals have talent but highly volatile talent. Michael Wacha is coming off his first 200 inning season of his life. Count a closer (Trevor Rosenthal) and first baseman (Matt Adams) who played great in the playoffs; but how does that translate to 162 games? A flash in the pan perhaps? Who knows. These guys are good, but again, it’s a long season. Before that I see Washington winning the wild card game but neither them or the Dodgers with enough gusto to go challenge Atlanta or St. Louis in a series.
The AL is filled with top and low end talent; a similar economic structure you may see in, say, Brazil. Starting in the west I think Oakland is the best out there, by far. I’m yet to be convinced that the Rangers or Angel’s will serve as competition with both relying on just a few players to carry their teams. The Rangers could actually put something together though, the Angels are just a mess. Enter the Mariners: a team who slumped and underperformed last year added some nice pieces and a new attitude for 2014. My bold pick is that they not only win the wild card game against the Indians but reach the ALCS too. [Editor’s Note: The Mariners swept the Angels in the opening series, outscoring them 18-2].
Yes I think Detroit, Cleveland, and Kansas City will not only finish in that order but in scarily the same fashion as last year. The only change I could see is the Tigers bumping down to wild card and the Indians up to division winner solely because the season series shouldn’t be so one sided this year (just banking on the probability of that one) and the Tigers have gotten worse. Prince Fielder is a hard guy to replace and Ian Kinsler won’t see an offensive spike at Comerica of all places. Granted, the Tigers had a wealth of talent so maybe losing Infante too proves inconsequential.
The East will have a similar three horse race but the Orioles wouldn’t want to be forgotten either, so let’s make it four. I’m taking the Yankees because of the veteranship and that they can buy their way there half way through the season. I don’t expect any team coming out of the division to make any noise however; picture the Big Ten conference in last year’s basketball season where they beat up on each other during the year and the illusion that they were all good was debunked when they exited quietly in the tournament. That leaves a Mariners, A’s ALCS and the A’s come out on top. Honestly I could see Toronto making some noise somewhere even though everyone has counted them out. It’s a complete roll of the dice. As it stands today, I don’t think I will be surprised at who comes out of this division.
My Cy Young go to King Felix after a 23 win season due to finally getting run support. The Marlins young ace, Jose Fernandez will also take the award thanks be to a new arm that hitters haven’t been able to figure out yet (oh and dynamite stuff, sure). MVP’s go to Josh Donaldson of the A’s, who made an admirable effort last season, and Mike Stanton of the Marlins after he hits 58 homers. Honestly the NL MVP award is the biggest toss up decision I’ve had since the last time I had to pick out only one pint of Ben and Jerry’s.
ALCS- A’s over M’s…...NLCS- Braves over Cardinals……WS-Braves over A’s
Brett:
American League
The West is going to be a division to follow. There are three teams who could easily win it, and even the Mariners are dangerous with Cano and Hernandez. Seattle and two of the other contending teams, the Angels and Rangers, have spent a butt-load of money in recent off-seasons, yet the meek Athletics have topped the division the last two years. Is this the year that changes? I say yes, and I say the Rangers are going to be the team to do it. I liked the Athletics off-season, but I’m not sure their young rotation will be able to get them a third straight division crown. The Angels rotation just won’t be good enough for me. And while the injury issues for the Rangers in that department aren’t promising, they should still have Darvish for the majority of the year. With a lineup that boasts Andrus, Beltre, Fielder, Rios, and Choo I think it will be enough.
This could be the division most at risk for a coup d’état. While the Tigers have won the division for the last three years, the Indians and Royals made big strides last season. For me the Tigers will win it once again. They had a lot of roster turnover, but it should give them a better balance on offense and finally a lefty in the rotation (also Fister started the year on the DL… did Dombrowski know something?). The Royals are creeping ever so closer to a playoff berth, but it will have to wait one more year. The biggest threat to the Tigers will be the Indians. Cleveland has talent, but the strength of the team is the manager who put his guys in a position to succeed last year. In my opinion the Indians will finish well out of first place. Cleveland faithful will point to down years for Bourn and Swisher and hope for bounce back ones. But Bourn’s game is predicated on speed and he is now 31 and may have lost a step for good. I believe Swisher to be a .250 hitter now after hitting .246 last year. His BABIP wasn’t terribly low (.288) and his line drive percentage (23.1%) was the best he has had in his career so he was swinging the bat well his bat speed may have slowed a tad though. Ryan Raburn also will regress as his HR to FB rate was a whooping ten points higher than his career rate (23.9/12.4). The staff will be interesting to watch, and gone is the inconsistent Ubaldo Jimenez, but he pitched them to post-season last year with a fantastic second half (1.09 ERA in September). Overall I think it is still the Tiger’s division.
The East is easily the toughest division to call in baseball. Any one of four teams could win this in my opinion, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, or Orioles. The Blue Jays are talented and might have a fighting chance in other divisions, but not this one. The year after Boston wins the Series, New York goes and spends a bunch of money surprise surprise. The question is will it be enough? For me Tanaka is closer to a Darvish than a Matsuzaka (in terms of production not stuff). McCann’s lefty swing as well is built for the short porch in right. For me though the real battle will be between the Rays and the O’s. The Orioles have a loaded lineup that can swing with any in the division, and the staff is improved. They struggled in close games last year, but I expect them to win enough of those this year to contend for the division. The Rays will just keep being fantastic. The young staff is exciting and loaded and maybe a full season from Longoria will take them to the top. In my write up I said the Orioles will contend for a WC, but I think I just convinced myself to take them in the East.
National League
Many had already given the Dodgers this division before a game was played. I tend to agree with them, but there could possibly be a mix up. The D-backs are definitely in win now mode, and I think they have a strong lineup. The rotation also has guys who have been successful in the past, but they all need to put it together to win it this year. The Padres have some young guns and could be dangerous, but probably not for a few more years. The Giants too are a big question mark, but I don’t think anyone believes they are as bad as their record showed in 2013. All in all barring lengthy injuries from Kershaw and other stars, the Dodgers will win the division by the largest margin of any in 2014.
Three teams in the Central with ninety wins last year, but for some reason I’m having an easy time with this one…the Cardinals. The Reds had a fantastic year and may actually do better if they can get a full season from Cueto. There were stinging losses including Arroyo and Choo, but they may have an upgrade over Arroyo in Cingrani. I hope the Pirates enjoyed postseason baseball in 2013, because it isn’t happening this year. St. Louis is stacked all over the place. The lineup can outhit anyone and the staff can outpitch anyone. The scary thought is they have a fantastic farm system to back it up. One of the best run organizations in sports will be winning the Central again this season. Plenty of wins to be had for everyone though with 19 games against the Cubs, so WC is possible even for Milwaukee.
Although I think the Marlins are going to be dangerous very shortly, now isn’t the time. It is time for a two team race in the East. That would be the Nationals and the Braves. The Nationals ended up with a respectable record that season despite a horrible first half. The rotation looks to be one of the best in baseball and the lineup will bounce back from an average season last year led by a big break out year for Harper (break out as in one of the top years in the league). I had pegged the Braves to win the division, but a slew of rotation injuries in spring have me questioning that. Still the lineup is strong, and there has never been a truer sense of the words “lights out” in the bullpen. Teams better score in the first six innings and the starting staff is strong enough to be a major threat. In the end though, I see the Nationals getting ahold of the division for the first time.
MVP’s —–AL – Mike Trout. The man can just do so much good on the baseball field. I don’t need WAR to tell me how good the man is. I also see him about as vulnerable to injury as Achilles as well so no chance of losing it to that. NL – Ryan Braun. Risky pick. Voters may be turned away by the PED suspension he took, but the chip on his shoulder is bigger than the hotdogs they are selling in Arizona.
ALCS- Tigers over Rangers……NLCS- Cardinals over Nationals……WS– Tigers over Cardinal : As useless as World Series picks are in April I’m going to do it anyway. Mike Ilitch finally gets the baseball championship he has tried so hard to bring to Motown. Detroit Tigers over the St. Louis Cardinals. (will be their 4th WS matchup)
North Bound Sports Report 